Is This Year’s Palme d’Or Winner an Oscar Front-Runner?

by Jacqueline A. O'Neill · June 4, 2025

Is This Year’s Palme d’Or Winner an Oscar Front-Runner?

After two long weeks, the Cannes Film Festival is officially over—and Jafar Panahi’s It Was Just an Accident has walked away with the Palme d’Or. The revenge thriller was considered one of the strongest of the festival’s lineup, and Panahi’s personal story as an acclaimed dissident Iranian filmmaker who had to shoot this film in secret made his win feel all the more earned.

But the Cannes jury—led by president Juliette Binoche—also made several surprising choices this year, arguably including the Palme pick. Many watching the festival closely thought Joachim Trier’s Sentimental Value would take the top prize after a rapturous debut. (It ended up getting the Grand Prix, or second place.) And as we mentioned on today’s episode of Little Gold Men (listen at the link below), this year’s Cannes jury veered away from the American talent at the festival, instead awarding its honors to an impressive list of international artists. For example, Jennifer Lawrence was considered a front-runner for the lead-actress prize because of her astounding performance in Die, My Love, but instead the award went to French actor Nadia Melliti for the coming-of-age drama The Little Sister.

The Little Gold Men team discusses all this and more in our latest episode, a detailed breakdown of Cannes and what it means for this year’s Oscar race. A Palme win does not guarantee Oscar-season success. Sean Baker’s Anora was only the fourth film to ever win both the Palme and best picture. But in the past few years, several Palme winners—Anatomy of a Fall, Triangle of Sadness, and Parasite, have earned Oscar nominations or wins. In other words, keep an eye out—given recent history, It Was Just an Accident could go all the way.