The complete unknowns of this oscar season

by Jacqueline A. O'Neill · August 3, 2024

Feel free to share:

This Oscar Season Complete Unknowns

Oscar season always contains some unknowns, and last week’s trailer drop for A Complete Unknown certainly qualified. As soon as we learned the Timothée Chalamet–as–Bob Dylan biopic would debut in December, observers labeled it an instant, late-breaking Oscar contender—which can be a tricky place to be in. As I explored for Vanity Fair this week, it’s become increasingly rare for awards movies to experience such a quick turnaround from production to release, due to the COVID pandemic and last year’s industry strikes. But that energized machine is finally revving back up again, meaning we know even less at this time of year than we usually do.

I’m David Canfield, and this also came up again earlier this week when Sony dated Jason Reitman’s SNL origin story film Saturday Night for October. Reitman’s last few movies have been very far from the Oscar conversation, but he was a mainstay in the race not too long ago, with movies like Juno and Up in the Air netting major above-the-line nominations including best picture. Is this his comeback, given the film’s personal connection (his father, the late filmmaker Ivan Reitman, was a major comedy figure in ’70s and ’80s Hollywood) and its rich industry bona fides? The fact that the film was shot so recently, earlier this year, adds extra hope—or perhaps just mystery—to that question.

A Complete Unknown could also drive home an intriguing narrative for its director, James Mangold. He’s helmed multiple Oscar-winning performances, including Reese Witherspoon’s in Walk the Line, a musical biopic so culturally resonant it helped inspire an equally beloved parody (Walk Hard). But while Mangold has since found individual Oscar recognition as a writer (Logan) and producer (Ford v Ferrari), the Academy’s directing branch has yet to nominate him. This movie’s accelerated December release indicates Searchlight believes it has the goods, and there could be room to embrace a respected veteran like Mangold in that larger campaign.

There are more potential chaos agents to come this awards season—that is, titles that both shot and will premiere this year. A24’s Babygirl, an erotic thriller helmed by Halina Reijn and starring Nicole Kidman and Harris Dickinson, will bow at Venice after only recently wrapping production, while a couple of buzzy sales titles hitting the festivals are racing to meet their deadlines. Take The Friend, an adaptation of a recent National Book Award winner, starring newly minted Emmy nominee Naomi Watts, and directed by the perennially underrated team of Scott McGehee and David Siegel. It’s going to Toronto and, potentially, Telluride. There are others in a similar position. Not all of them will hit, of course. But there’s reason to expect some will.

All of which is to say: If you think you’ve got this season’s landscape figured out, think again.